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The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Permanent URL:
http://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/58473
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Abstract:
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is −6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.
Author(s):
Hugo Valin , Ronald D. Sands , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe , Gerald C. Nelson , Helal Ahammad , Elodie Blanc , Benjamin Bodirsky , Shinichiro Fujimori , Tomoko Hasegawa , Petr Havlik , Edwina Heyhoe , Page Kyle , Daniel Mason-D’Croz , Sergey Paltsev , Susanne Rolinski , Andrzej Tabeau , Hans van Meijl , Martin von Lampe , Dirk Willenbockel
Subject(s):
Food and Agriculture Organization , biofuels , climate change , crops , demand elasticities , econometric models , foods , income , livestock , socioeconomic development
Source:
Agricultural economics 2014 v.45
Language:
English
Year:
2014
Collection:
Journal Articles, USDA Authors, Peer-Reviewed
Rights:
Works produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted.