Search National Agricultural Library Digital Collections

NALDC Record Details:

Measuring the Financial Health of U.S. Production Agriculture

Permanent URL:
With farm income at record, or near record levels, the overall agricultural production sector has fared well. However, in the current economic climate, instability and volatility in certain agricultural input markets caused by the U.S. macro-economy has put increased pressure on some sub-sectors of the agricultural economy. This paper analyzes the probability of default for USDA Agriculture Resource Management Survey (ARMS) farm operator households over time using a synthetic credit rating model. The probability of default was estimated for each ARMS farm sampled. The farms are classified according to farm type, gross sales class and by region to assess the financial health of each sector. Results indicate that the financial sector at the end of 2010 was exceptionally strong, although there are still certain farms that are vulnerable.
Brady E. Brewer , Christine A. Wilson , Allen M. Featherstone , J. Michael Harris , Ken Erickson , Charles Hallahan
Agricultural Resource Management Survey , USDA , agricultural industry , credit , farm income , farm operator households , farm records , farms , inputs , markets , models , probability , sales , United States
Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers 2012
Journal Articles, USDA Authors, Peer-Reviewed
Download [PDF File]
Works produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted.